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WASHINGTON -- With the global financial crisis taking an increasing toll on Asian economies, many countries should consider monetary and fiscal stimulus in addition to measures to protect local financial systems, the International Monetary Fund said.
In its latest regional economic outlook, the IMF trimmed its 2008 gross domestic product forecast for Asia to 6.0% from a 6.1% estimate of a month ago, while slashing its 2008 forecast to 4.9% from 5.6%.
"Despite Asia's strong fundamentals, notably a substantial cushion in external reserves and robust corporate and banking sectors, the region is being buffeted by large external shocks," said Jerald Schiff, senior adviser of the fund's Asia and Pacific department, in a conference call.
The decline in exports is expected to pick up sharply, while global deleveraging should continue to squeeze external financing conditions, he said.
"In this difficult environment, policy makers need to focus on ensuring financial stability and the functioning of credit markets, while using macroeconomic policies to support growth," Mr. Schiff said.
The report follows the release this month of updated global forecasts, in which the fund predicted that in 2009 advanced economies would suffer a full-year contraction for the first time since World War II. Global growth is expected to slow to 3.7% this year and 2.2% in 2009.
While growth in Asia is expected to recover gradually starting in the second half of next year, risks are "unusually large" and remain firmly to the downside, Mr. Schiff said.
"A sharper-than-expected global slowdown and a more protracted period of financial turmoil could raise pressures on corporates and households in Asia, contributing to a rise in bad loans and risking an adverse cycle of tightening credit conditions and deteriorating growth," he said.
The main risks are external and financial in nature, including tight financing conditions, volatile capital flows and a sharp slowdown in exports.
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