DHL Forecasts Growth in Asia as U.S. Sags

RDX : 有谁了解的 为什么就我观察 DHL做的奇差无比 还是地区性的差异？

By BRUCE STANLEY
September 9, 2008; Page B2

HONG KONG -- DHL Express foresees 13% growth in Asia revenue this year, thanks to robust document- and package-delivery business in the region at a time of a worsening economic slump in the U.S., Europe and Japan.

The forecast by the courier unit of Deutsche Post AG falls short of the 17% average annual increase in revenue it posted in the Asia-Pacific region from 2000 through 2007. But it marks a bright outlook given the slack demand for express deliveries in key Western and industrialized countries.

Daniel McHugh, chief executive officer for DHL Express' business in the Asia-Pacific region, attributed the upbeat regional forecast largely to a steady rise in DHL's delivery volumes in China and within Asia. In addition, DHL Express' Asian business benefits from depending on the U.S. for only about 15% of its revenue, he said in an interview Monday.

"We have, frankly, a lot more balls in play for us," he said. "And that kind of evens out the downsides of one country -- albeit the largest one -- going into a downturn."

He declined to give Asia-revenue figures.

Mr. McHugh said industrywide express deliveries in northern Pacific countries, including China, account now for 21% of total global deliveries by volume. Within five to seven years, the northern Pacific's share of the global total should grow to at least 33%, he said.

DHL's U.S.-based rivals -- United Parcel Service Inc. of Atlanta and FedEx Corp. of Memphis, Tenn. -- declined to estimate the respective shares of their Asian businesses that are generated by shipments to and from the U.S. UPS, FedEx and Dutch express-delivery firm TNT NV also declined to discuss their forecasts for growth in their Asia-wide operations.

For the second quarter, UPS posted a year-to-year growth rate of more than 20% in delivery volume from Asia to Europe and a comparable increase in intra-Asian traffic, though it didn't provide specifics. TNT said its volumes between China and Europe rose by more than 20% in 2007. FedEx doesn't publicize details of its regional results in Asia.

TNT did provide a partial forecast for growth in Southeast Asia, where it believes the total market for day-to-day express deliveries by all carriers will double to €4 billion ($5.6 billion) in 2011 from €2 billion in 2005. Strong increases in shipments of electronics and computer-related goods and documents are driving this growth in countries including Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, TNT said.